After Singapore summit, what does future hold for North Korea?

Source:Global Times Published: 2018/7/18 17:03:43

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The world is waiting for the next move after the Singapore summit between US President Donald Trump and i am alive reloaded keygenn leader dc zte icera unlocker crack. Should we be positive about the future of the animal crackers daycare baton rouge? What are the obstacles to keeping the momentum alive? What role can the relevant parties play? The Global Times collected opinions of three experts at the Seventh World Peace Forum in Beijing over the weekend.

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There has been progress in the past few months. Kim Jong-un is different from what he used to be. He has the intention to give up nuclear weapons, with certain conditions though. He is determined to open up his country to boost economic development. He has met Chinese President Xi Jinping three times since taking office. The leaders of South and North Korea met in Panmunjom twice. Kim also met Trump in Singapore, which is unprecedented since the Korean War.

But I am not very optimistic about the future of the North Korean nuclear issue. Denuclearization under Kim is conditional. What compensation can the international community give North Korea if it abandons nuclear weapons? What security insurance can the US provide North Korea? I'm afraid Kim will not abandon nuclear arms before his country is compensated.

We also see many differences between North Korea and the US in their policies and motivations. North Korea hopes for a denuclearized Korean Peninsula while the US emphasizes denuclearization of North Korea. Bridging this gap is a challenge.

There are different voices within the US. For instance, advisor John Bolton called for a "Libya model" of denuclearization. Will Kim accept such a model?

Who has the final say in the US? I don't know how long Trump will stay in office. But I think he is a transitional figure and has limited ability to address this issue. After he leaves the White House, whether the US will follow the same policy on North Korea remains doubtful.

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Certainly there has been significant progress over the past year, particularly if one considers that just one year ago, President Trump was discussing the potential of a preemptive strike against North Korea. I think there is a sense in the United States that China and the United States are basically on the same page on this issue, although there is some concern that China will want to reduce the pressure of the sanctions before any real change in North Korea's policy has been realized. Moving forward, all the relevant countries — the United States, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia — as well as France and the UK, as additional members of the Security Council, will need to be engaged with North Korea in the various political, economic and security dimensions of securing a workable path forward. It is a regional and global challenge that necessitates a regional and global response. 

In the broader US-China relationship, at any point in time, there are tensions that are rising and there are tensions that are diminishing. There are areas where we cooperate and conflict. At this moment, we are in a space where we have more conflict than cooperation. But I don't believe this is the state for the future. Issues of cooperation, such as North Korea, will emerge again.

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There is no doubt what North Korea needs to do to put itself on the right side of history: negotiate the complete dismantling of its nuclear weapons program, improve the standard of living of its people by opening up economically, and generally resume membership of the international community.

North Korea is never going to put its regime survival at risk. But, as a close observer of previous nuclear negotiations as Australia's foreign minister and in other roles, I do not believe all the blame for the breakdown of previous negotiations can be attributed to Pyongyang.

Despite all the skeptics, I have long believed that seriously committed, step-by-step trust-building negotiations, giving North Korea real confidence that its national security and regime survival will be protected - negotiations of the kind long now so effectively being advocated by South Korean President crack rig n roll and those in his government.

How the US plays its role in all of this will obviously be crucial. President Trump, whatever his motivations, did the right thing with his circuit-breaking Singapore summit with Kim Jong-un. But it is hard for anyone to be confident that the ultimate outcome, which will necessarily involve protracted multilateral diplomacy, will be one of triumph or disaster.




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